OK somethings are just too weird
Sometimes big ideas matter, but sometimes you just need someone who can make the right call in the moment.
Whatever you think about politics, I think there are some stories that should disqualify someone from getting your vote. The recent story about RFK’s ‘Bear-b-q’ is unfortunately one of them.
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/10/nx-s1-5062449/opinion-rfk-jr-central-park-bear-b-q-stunt
I’ve had a lot of sympathy for RFK, and considered supporting him. This story, unfortunately convinces me that despite my sympathy for him that he lacks the ability to be a good ‘judge in the moment’ - I.e. I don’t really want him answering the 3am call.
Some Musings on Modernity
Ramble ramble ramble
Today’s political environment is, as is apparent to everyone, highly divisive, at least on the surface. There are seemingly many issues that divide and preoccupy us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7lOcJqZEl4&t=29s
I’d like to discuss the above video a bit by David Schweikert. If you’ve never listened to Mr. Schweikert speak, then I think you’ll find him quite entertaining regardless of your political leanings. He’s an energetic and enthusiastic advocate for his ideas. He speaks specifically about the United States.
There are a number of issues that he discusses:
The ballooning US debt
Falling fertility rates in the US
The general health of society in the US
I’d like to discuss each of these a bit, in turn. My thoughts are unified by my underlying belief in three things: First, that in most cases a person will pursue his or her narrowly defined self interest, second that in any system over time power accumulates to the winners, and third that improved technological efficiency inevitably forces a society’s structure to change. I believe these things but this is not some sort of diatribe or manifesto. I simply use these ideas as a means of analysis in my thinking about things. I often feel that despite everything that all is for the best, in some way.
First, let’s consider the ballooning US debt. I’m not an economist, so perhaps its best to take my thoughts with some skepticism, but here goes.
Should we worry about a ballooning US debt? Usually those who argue that we shouldn’t do so by saying that as long as the debt doesn’t grow out of proportion to economic growth then there isn’t a problem. Debt is relative, in a sense. For as long as I can remember I generally agreed with this idea, as it makes intrinsic sense.
My trust in this formulation still mostly stands, but I’ve had to add nuance to it. Specifically, I’ve come to regard debt more broadly speaking as any form of drag on the sustainability of something. This is a broader, more general, and I think more useful way to think of debt, rather than a sum of dollars. Seen this way, many things that we don’t think of as debt very clearly are debts - poor health, emotional problems, environmental degradation. If enough of these accumulate, they can overpower the underlying motive force of the thing in question, e.g. the economy.
So the question for me becomes - are the drags on our system overcoming our motive forces? To answer this, we also have to consider what these motive forces are. These are the underlying behaviors, actions, or things that move us forward day to day. Often they are very small acts: The decision to go to work in the morning. The decision to be kind to a stranger. The decision to kiss a lover. Are these in danger of being overwhelmed? If so, by what?
I think there is some truth to the idea that they are, in some part, being overwhelmed. Social security quite obviously prevents older people from going to work, but then they should stay at home, right? But then again, how many retired people use their social security money to help adult children? However people live, evidently the prime-age male labor force participation rate today is 10% lower than it was in the middle of the last century. Could we attribute this decline to an increase in some form of abstracted debt? Possibly, possibly.
Darkly, I wonder if essentially we are incurring debts of one form or another to enable many people to stay at home, even if indirectly. But, if its in enough people’s narrow interest to enable such a state of affairs, naturally it occurs, to the extent it is possible.
On falling fertility rates, I think the world faces quite a tricky situation. There is lots of angst today about a declining population. In the middle of the last century the worry was exactly the opposite. The problem for me is that neither of these two things is possible or desirable: 1) an ever increasing population or 2) an ever declining population. In the first case we just run out of resources, unless we can expand to the stars…Obviously the second case is no good either. I sometimes wonder if what we will actually see is some sort of oscillation around a stable set point determined by the capacity of each country…
Despite what we say about cultural issues, I tend to think that the main driver of lower fertility rates is probably urbanization. Urbanization brings great economic benefits, but something about a highly urban life style lowers fertility. When I think about the typical urban day, how many folks return from their jobs tired but somehow also anxious, desirous of solitude, then its obvious why people are having less sex and hence having fewer babies. Not to mention that urban centers can’t grow denser beyond a certain point, while living outside the center tends to be full of disincentives.
On the general health of society there is much to be said. Despite its many failings, I still feel that the United States is a beacon of hope for many throughout the world, and so even if we are a bit socially sick, we must not be terminally so! For all the bad, there is much good. We may face incredible debts, the fertility rate may be too low. But at the end of the day and in the grand scheme, the debts will be resolved (perhaps unpleasantly), and the fertility rate will eventually improve (if nothing else by evolutionary forces). These won’t really matter in the grand scheme. Ultimately the health of a society is reflective of the underlying morality of its citizens.
We do, generally vote for our narrow self interests, but we are also human. Finally, I think more people than not realize that it is in their self interest to foster fraternity, to build strong relationships of mutual support, and to help one another. As long as we don’t kill that basic instinct, I think we will all be OK.
Thoughts on Big Investments
What pays off in the end?
As a kid, I remember thinking that as a society we should undertake really big and grand investments. I often felt disappointment with the United States because we weren’t out building more modern-day pyramids.
Today, I couldn’t disagree with my youthful self more. Naturally there is a time for investment, for thinking and dreaming big - but what I never considered when I was a kid was the cost to maintain something big, and the drag this creates. The question as I see it now is: is the benefit of this big thing, whatever it is, large enough to outweigh both the initial and ongoing recurring costs of it? I know its a cliche, but a bridge to no where is never a good idea.
I mention this because I think the biggest risk that the world economy faces today (and perhaps that it has always faced) is poorly performing mega investments. Big things that don’t deliver. The news is full of stories about the massive sums being spent on AI, and the enormous ghost cities that have sprung up in one place or another. These represent genuine economic risk if they under-perform, as their under-performance entails loads and loads of broken expectations.